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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

31.90%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

31.94%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

32.10%

increased by 0.24%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 250 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0165
1.66*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0070
1.91*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9937
309.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0070
-1.87*

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

250 days