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CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 11th, 2026

1 Day

31.55%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Week

31.60%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

31.78%

increased by 0.20%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 03:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/10/2024

to

11/10/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 246 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~246 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0168
1.69*
αARCH0.0069
1.88*
βGARCH0.9938
310.26***
γleverage-0.0069
-1.83*

0.997

Persistence

246d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0168
1.69*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0069
1.88*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9938
310.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0069
-1.83*

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

246 days