CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
31.28%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
31.33%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
31.51%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 247 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~247 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0167 | 1.67* |
| αARCH | 0.0069 | 1.88* |
| βGARCH | 0.9937 | 309.39*** |
| γleverage | -0.0069 | -1.85* |
0.997
Persistence247d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0167 | 1.67* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0069 | 1.88* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9937 | 309.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0069 | -1.85* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
247 days
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