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V-Lab

CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

32.68%

increased by 0.72%

1 Week

32.72%

increased by 0.76%

1 Month

32.86%

increased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 254 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0162
6.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0071
7.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9937
1,240.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0071
-7.67***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

254 days