V-Lab
CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
31.90%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
31.94%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
32.10%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 250 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0165 | 1.66* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0070 | 1.91* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9937 | 309.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0070 | -1.87* |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
250 days
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