CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
32.68%
increased by 0.72%
1 Week
32.72%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
32.86%
increased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 02:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 254 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0162 | 6.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0071 | 7.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9937 | 1,240.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0071 | -7.67*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
254 days
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