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CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

31.65%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Week

31.70%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

31.87%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CME Lean Hogs GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 251 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~251 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0165
1.66*
αARCH0.0070
1.91*
βGARCH0.9937
309.09***
γleverage-0.0070
-1.88*

0.997

Persistence

251d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0165
1.66*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0070
1.91*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9937
309.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0070
-1.88*

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

251 days