V-Lab
S&P GSCI Cotton Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
21.67%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
21.72%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
21.90%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0166 | 18.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0461 | 21.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9499 | 752.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0053 | -1.54 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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