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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cotton Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

25.70%

increased by 1.08%

1 Week

25.70%

increased by 1.08%

1 Month

25.67%

increased by 1.05%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cotton Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0165
18.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0461
21.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9500
753.39***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0053
-1.55

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

106 days