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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cotton Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

25.13%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

25.13%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Month

25.14%

decreased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cotton Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~105 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0165
4.67***
αARCH0.0461
5.44***
βGARCH0.9501
188.77***
γleverage-0.0056
-0.41

0.993

Persistence

105d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0165
4.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0461
5.44***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9501
188.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0056
-0.41

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days