S&P GSCI Cotton Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
25.70%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
25.70%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
25.67%
increased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 106 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0165 | 18.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0461 | 21.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9500 | 753.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0053 | -1.55 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
106 days
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