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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Cotton Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

24.75%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

24.76%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

24.78%

decreased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Cotton Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 105 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0165
18.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0461
21.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9500
753.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0053
-1.55

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

105 days