S&P GSCI Silver Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
46.56%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
46.54%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
46.42%
decreased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 291 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 110% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0150 | 13.40*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0572 | 20.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9554 | 653.02*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0299 | -8.00*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
291 days
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