V-Lab
S&P GSCI Silver Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
39.82%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
39.82%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
39.80%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 271 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 110% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0153 | 3.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0575 | 5.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9550 | 162.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0301 | -2.01** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
271 days
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