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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Silver Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

44.83%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

44.80%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Month

44.71%

decreased by 0.83%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Silver Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 287 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 110% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0150
13.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0573
20.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9553
652.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0300
-8.02***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

287 days