S&P GSCI Silver Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
44.83%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
44.80%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Month
44.71%
decreased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 287 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 110% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0150 | 13.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0573 | 20.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9553 | 652.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0300 | -8.02*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
287 days
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