S&P GSCI Silver Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
50.48%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
50.39%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
50.03%
decreased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 209 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0154 | 15.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0404 | 27.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9563 | 670.58*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
209 days
Other S&P GSCI Silver Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Commodities