S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
56.31%
decreased by 2.06%
1 Week
56.01%
decreased by 2.36%
1 Month
54.90%
decreased by 3.47%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0485 | 23.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0712 | 34.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9198 | 469.27*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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