Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

56.31%

decreased by 2.06%

1 Week

56.01%

decreased by 2.36%

1 Month

54.90%

decreased by 3.47%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0485
23.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0712
34.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9198
469.27***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

76 days