S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
48.07%
decreased by 1.71%
1 Week
47.83%
decreased by 1.95%
1 Month
47.01%
decreased by 2.77%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 30% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0637 | 20.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8886 | 198.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0193 | 5.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0161 | 6.39*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0324 | 6.12*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9642 | 163.55*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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