S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
51.93%
decreased by 1.76%
1 Week
51.45%
decreased by 2.24%
1 Month
49.95%
decreased by 3.74%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 30% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 86 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0636 | 20.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8888 | 198.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0192 | 5.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0160 | 6.39*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0322 | 6.12*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9643 | 164.37*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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