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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

48.07%

decreased by 1.71%

1 Week

47.83%

decreased by 1.95%

1 Month

47.01%

decreased by 2.77%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 30% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0637
20.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8886
198.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0193
5.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0161
6.39***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0324
6.12***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9642
163.55***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days