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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

51.93%

decreased by 1.76%

1 Week

51.45%

decreased by 2.24%

1 Month

49.95%

decreased by 3.74%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Heating Oil Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 30% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0636
20.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8888
198.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0192
5.56***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0160
6.39***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0322
6.12***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9643
164.37***

Persistence:

0.962

Half-life:

18 days