S&P GSCI Sugar Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
25.00%
increased by 2.08%
1 Week
24.71%
increased by 1.79%
1 Month
24.63%
increased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 82% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0315 | 7.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7506 | 19.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0260 | 5.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0274 | 0.60 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0445 | 0.91 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9479 | 16.92*** |
Persistence:
0.795
Half-life:
3 days
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