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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

26.04%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

26.42%

increased by 0.40%

1 Month

27.13%

increased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0435
4.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8369
15.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0477
1.88*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0445
1.39
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0517
1.63
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9357
23.81***

Persistence:

0.904

Half-life:

7 days