V-Lab
ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
26.04%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
26.42%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
27.13%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 4.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8369 | 15.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0477 | 1.88* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0445 | 1.39 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0517 | 1.63 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9357 | 23.81*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
Other ICE US Cotton No. 2 Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Commodities