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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

27.06%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

27.22%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

27.97%

increased by 0.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC

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graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0441
4.25***
βGARCH0.8333
15.12***
γleverage0.0473
1.85*
λ₁tau intercept0.0466
1.41
λ₂forecast adj.0.0539
1.65*
λ₃tau persistence0.9329
23.03***

0.901

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0441
4.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8333
15.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0473
1.85*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0466
1.41
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0539
1.65*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9329
23.03***

Persistence:

0.901

Half-life:

7 days