V-Lab
ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
30.41%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
29.95%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
29.34%
decreased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0441 | 4.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8338 | 15.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.0472 | 1.85* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0463 | 1.41 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0537 | 1.64 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9333 | 23.11*** |
0.902
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0441 | 4.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8338 | 15.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0472 | 1.85* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0463 | 1.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0537 | 1.64 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9333 | 23.11*** |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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