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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026

1 Day

23.40%

decreased by 0.33%

1 Week

24.23%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

25.80%

increased by 2.07%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/11/2024

to

11/11/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0428
4.23***
βGARCH0.8393
16.14***
γleverage0.0482
1.94*
λ₁tau intercept0.0428
1.39
λ₂forecast adj.0.0492
1.64
λ₃tau persistence0.9386
25.16***

0.906

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0428
4.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8393
16.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0482
1.94*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0428
1.39
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0492
1.64
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9386
25.16***

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days