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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

28.60%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Week

29.06%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Month

30.24%

increased by 0.77%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0424
4.18***
βGARCH0.8376
15.64***
γleverage0.0482
1.92*
λ₁tau intercept0.0457
1.40
λ₂forecast adj.0.0528
1.63
λ₃tau persistence0.9343
23.36***

0.904

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0424
4.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8376
15.64***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0482
1.92*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0457
1.40
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0528
1.63
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9343
23.36***

Persistence:

0.904

Half-life:

7 days