ICE US Cotton No. 2 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
28.60%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
29.06%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
30.24%
increased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 01:04 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.0424 | 4.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8376 | 15.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.0482 | 1.92* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0457 | 1.40 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0528 | 1.63 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9343 | 23.36*** |
0.904
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0424 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8376 | 15.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0482 | 1.92* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0457 | 1.40 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0528 | 1.63 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9343 | 23.36*** |
Persistence:
0.904
Half-life:
7 days
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