V-Lab
ICE US Cotton No. 2 AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
24.94%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
25.11%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Month
25.72%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.34) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0422 | 15.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0548 | 33.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9325 | 537.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3351 | 8.28*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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