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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

24.94%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

25.11%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

25.72%

increased by 0.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.34) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0422
15.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0548
33.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9325
537.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3351
8.28***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days