ICE US Cotton No. 2 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
33.85%
increased by 2.28%
1 Week
33.79%
increased by 2.22%
1 Month
33.56%
increased by 1.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5810 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0444 | 24.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9917 | 529.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3458 | 6.82*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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