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V-Lab

ICE US Cotton No. 2 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

30.86%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

30.84%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

30.79%

decreased by 0.34%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cotton No. 2 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 daysv = 5.35 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.5551
1.16
αARCH0.0442
6.10***
βGARCH0.9916
130.05***
νDF5.3500
1.67*

0.992

Persistence

82d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.5551
1.16
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0442
6.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9916
130.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.3500
1.67*

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days