V-Lab
ICE US Cotton No. 2 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
24.93%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
25.02%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
25.36%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5257 | 1.16 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0442 | 6.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9915 | 128.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.3295 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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