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V-Lab

S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

17.86%

increased by 1.13%

1 Week

17.81%

increased by 1.08%

1 Month

17.65%

increased by 0.92%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9511
9.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0447
21.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9900
891.12***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.5523
3.17***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

69 days