S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.26%
1 Week
16.25%
1 Month
16.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 71 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.9634 | 2.75*** |
| αscore | 0.0452 | 5.44*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9902 | 246.32*** |
| νDF | 10.6475 | 0.73 |
0.990
Persistence71d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.9634 | 2.75*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0452 | 5.44*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9902 | 246.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.6475 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
71 days
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