V-Lab
S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
17.86%
increased by 1.13%
1 Week
17.81%
increased by 1.08%
1 Month
17.65%
increased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9511 | 9.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0447 | 21.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9900 | 891.12*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5523 | 3.17*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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