V-Lab
S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
16.24%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
16.22%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Month
16.17%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9480 | 2.48** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0445 | 5.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9900 | 223.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.5790 | 0.79 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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