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V-Lab

S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

15.25%

increased by 0.39%

1 Week

15.25%

increased by 0.39%

1 Month

15.27%

increased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI All Cattle Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2002 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.49 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9427
9.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0447
21.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9899
878.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.4871
3.17***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days