V-Lab
S&P GSCI Silver Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
47.28%
increased by 1.67%
1 Week
47.18%
increased by 1.57%
1 Month
46.77%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 187 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5676 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0367 | 15.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9963 | 368.32*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9017 | 7.42*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
187 days
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