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S&P GSCI Silver Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

36.62%

increased by 3.41%

1 Week

36.73%

increased by 3.52%

1 Month

37.06%

increased by 3.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Silver Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 112% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 112% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow121
αARCH0.0633
6.91***
βGARCH0.9367
101.72***
γleverage-0.0334
-3.06***
λ₁tau intercept0.0095
1.02
λ₂forecast adj.0.0239
1.80*
λ₃tau persistence0.9738
64.77***

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

121
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0633
6.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9367
101.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0334
-3.06***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0095
1.02
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0239
1.80*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9738
64.77***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days