ICE US Cocoa MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, June 17th, 2026
1 Day
64.59%
increased by 1.77%
1 Week
64.61%
increased by 1.79%
1 Month
64.67%
increased by 1.85%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 09:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 106 | ||
| 0.0306 | 22.75 | |
| 0.9751 | 991.98 | |
| -0.0114 | -7.15 | |
| 4.3665 | 2.20 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.01 | |
| 0.9726 | 72.47 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 3, 2000 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 3, 2000 to Jun 12, 2026
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