Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE US Cocoa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

51.47%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Week

51.41%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Month

51.16%

decreased by 0.98%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cocoa S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 361 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~361 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3736
8.61***
αARCH0.0245
5.48***
βGARCH0.9736
190.20***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0010
1.57

0.998

Persistence

361d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3736
8.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0245
5.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9736
190.20***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0010
1.57

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

361 days