V-Lab
ICE US Cocoa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
67.89%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Week
67.81%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Month
67.45%
decreased by 1.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 409 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3857 | 8.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0243 | 5.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9740 | 192.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 1.29 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
409 days
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