ICE US Cocoa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
70.32%
increased by 3.20%
1 Week
70.23%
increased by 3.11%
1 Month
69.86%
increased by 2.74%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 412 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3883 | 8.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0244 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9740 | 192.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
412 days
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