V-Lab
ICE US Cocoa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
57.91%
increased by 2.79%
1 Week
57.84%
increased by 2.72%
1 Month
57.56%
increased by 2.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 389 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~389 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3787 | 8.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.0243 | 5.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9740 | 192.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 1.42 |
0.998
Persistence389d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3787 | 8.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0243 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9740 | 192.48*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 1.42 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
389 days
Other ICE US Cocoa Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities