ICE US Cocoa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
51.47%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
51.41%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
51.16%
decreased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 361 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~361 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3736 | 8.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0245 | 5.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9736 | 190.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 1.57 |
0.998
Persistence361d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3736 | 8.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0245 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9736 | 190.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 1.57 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
361 days
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