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ICE US Cocoa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

45.77%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

45.72%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

45.52%

decreased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cocoa S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 342 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~342 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3704
8.57***
αARCH0.0247
5.51***
βGARCH0.9733
188.95***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0010
1.67*

0.998

Persistence

342d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3704
8.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0247
5.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9733
188.95***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0010
1.67*

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

342 days