ICE US Cocoa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
45.77%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
45.72%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
45.52%
decreased by 0.85%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 342 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~342 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3704 | 8.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.0247 | 5.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9733 | 188.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 1.67* |
0.998
Persistence342d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3704 | 8.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0247 | 5.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9733 | 188.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0010 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
342 days
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