V-Lab
ICE US Cocoa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
61.39%
increased by 0.97%
1 Week
61.31%
increased by 0.89%
1 Month
61.00%
increased by 0.58%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 398 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3815 | 8.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0242 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9740 | 192.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0009 | 1.36 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
398 days
Other ICE US Cocoa Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities