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ICE US Cocoa Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

57.91%

increased by 2.79%

1 Week

57.84%

increased by 2.72%

1 Month

57.56%

increased by 2.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cocoa S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 389 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~389 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3787
8.67***
αARCH0.0243
5.48***
βGARCH0.9740
192.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
1.42

0.998

Persistence

389d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3787
8.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0243
5.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9740
192.48***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0009
1.42

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

389 days