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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Zinc Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

24.27%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

24.25%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Month

24.17%

decreased by 0.16%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Zinc Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9125
4.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0365
3.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9441
71.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ10.0011
0.04
γ20.0064
0.14
γ30.0322
0.96
γ4-0.1254
-5.32***
γ50.1482
8.06***
γ6-0.0852
-5.59***
γ70.0277
2.51**

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

35 days