S&P GSCI Zinc Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
24.27%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
24.25%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
24.17%
decreased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9125 | 4.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0365 | 3.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9441 | 71.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0011 | 0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0064 | 0.14 |
| γ3 | 0.0322 | 0.96 |
| γ4 | -0.1254 | -5.32*** |
| γ5 | 0.1482 | 8.06*** |
| γ6 | -0.0852 | -5.59*** |
| γ7 | 0.0277 | 2.51** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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