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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Zinc Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

23.28%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

23.31%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

23.43%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Zinc Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~172 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9367
4.64***
αARCH0.0323
4.92***
βGARCH0.9637
135.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.35

0.996

Persistence

172d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9367
4.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0323
4.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9637
135.92***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.35

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

172 days