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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Zinc Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

21.84%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

21.88%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

22.06%

decreased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Zinc Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~172 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9368
4.65***
αARCH0.0322
4.92***
βGARCH0.9638
136.28***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.34

0.996

Persistence

172d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9368
4.65***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0322
4.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9638
136.28***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.34

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

172 days