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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Zinc Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

19.59%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

19.66%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

19.91%

increased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Zinc Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 1991 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9432
4.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0324
4.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9636
135.89***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0001
-0.28

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

172 days