S&P GSCI Zinc Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
21.84%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
21.88%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
22.06%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 172 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~172 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9368 | 4.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.0322 | 4.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9638 | 136.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.34 |
0.996
Persistence172d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9368 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0322 | 4.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9638 | 136.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0001 | -0.34 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
172 days
Other S&P GSCI Zinc Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Commodities