V-Lab
S&P GSCI Zinc Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
21.55%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
21.58%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
21.70%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 266 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 79% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0075 | 10.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0376 | 13.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9681 | 654.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0165 | -4.94*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
266 days
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