S&P GSCI Zinc Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
23.91%
increased by 0.07%
1 Week
23.93%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
24.00%
increased by 0.16%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 267 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 79% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0076 | 10.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0377 | 13.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9680 | 650.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0166 | -4.96*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
267 days
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