S&P GSCI Zinc Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
21.11%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
21.14%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
21.28%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 267 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~267 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0075 | 2.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0375 | 3.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9682 | 164.50*** |
| γleverage | -0.0167 | -1.25 |
0.997
Persistence267d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0075 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0375 | 3.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9682 | 164.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0167 | -1.25 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
267 days
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