V-Lab
S&P GSCI Zinc Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
20.03%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
20.07%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
20.23%
decreased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 262 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0076 | 2.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0375 | 3.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9680 | 163.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0164 | -1.22 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
262 days
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