V-Lab
S&P GSCI Zinc Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.69%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
22.72%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
22.81%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 1991 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 267 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~267 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0075 | 2.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0376 | 3.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9682 | 164.18*** |
| γleverage | -0.0167 | -1.25 |
0.997
Persistence267d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0075 | 2.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0376 | 3.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9682 | 164.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0167 | -1.25 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
267 days
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