V-Lab
COMEX Copper GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
21.51%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
21.60%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
21.94%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0191 | 2.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0417 | 2.38** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9532 | 120.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0020 | -0.07 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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