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V-Lab

COMEX Copper GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

25.69%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Week

25.72%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

25.84%

decreased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of COMEX Copper GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0186
11.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0414
9.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9537
486.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0022
-0.32

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

117 days