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V-Lab

COMEX Copper GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

24.77%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

24.82%

decreased by 0.44%

1 Month

24.98%

decreased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of COMEX Copper GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0187
11.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0414
9.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9538
486.61***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0022
-0.31

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

116 days