V-Lab
COMEX Copper GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
21.05%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
21.15%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
21.52%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 111 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~111 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0192 | 2.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0419 | 2.39** |
| βGARCH | 0.9529 | 120.01*** |
| γleverage | -0.0021 | -0.07 |
0.994
Persistence111d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0192 | 2.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0419 | 2.39** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9529 | 120.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0021 | -0.07 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
111 days
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