V-Lab
COMEX Copper GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
24.77%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
24.82%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
24.98%
decreased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 116 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0187 | 11.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0414 | 9.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9538 | 486.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0022 | -0.31 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
116 days
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