V-Lab
COMEX Copper GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
25.47%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
25.50%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
25.63%
decreased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~115 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0187 | 2.99*** |
| αARCH | 0.0412 | 2.37** |
| βGARCH | 0.9540 | 122.65*** |
| γleverage | -0.0024 | -0.09 |
0.994
Persistence115d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0187 | 2.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0412 | 2.37** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9540 | 122.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0024 | -0.09 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
115 days
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