COMEX Copper GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
25.69%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Week
25.72%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
25.84%
decreased by 0.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 117 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0186 | 11.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0414 | 9.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9537 | 486.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0022 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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