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V-Lab
V-Lab

COMEX Copper EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

23.71%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

23.85%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Month

24.42%

decreased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of COMEX Copper EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0134
4.78***
αARCH0.1033
6.81***
βGARCH0.9910
379.26***
γleverage-0.0009
-0.05

0.991

Persistence

77d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0134
4.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1033
6.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9910
379.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0009
-0.05

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days