V-Lab
COMEX Copper EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.71%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
23.85%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
24.42%
decreased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0134 | 4.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1033 | 6.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9910 | 379.26*** |
| γleverage | -0.0009 | -0.05 |
0.991
Persistence77d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0134 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1033 | 6.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9910 | 379.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0009 | -0.05 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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