ICE US Coffee Arabica EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
55.75%
decreased by 3.36%
1 Week
53.83%
decreased by 5.28%
1 Month
48.46%
decreased by 10.65%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 206% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0643 | 11.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1083 | 20.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9596 | 376.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0550 | 13.40*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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