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V-Lab

ICE US Coffee Arabica EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

55.75%

decreased by 3.36%

1 Week

53.83%

decreased by 5.28%

1 Month

48.46%

decreased by 10.65%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 09:10 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Coffee Arabica EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 206% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0643
11.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1083
20.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9596
376.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0550
13.40***

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days