Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Henry Hub Natural Gas EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

48.96%

increased by 1.94%

1 Week

49.44%

increased by 2.42%

1 Month

51.26%

increased by 4.24%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Henry Hub Natural Gas EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0380
4.67***
αARCH0.1745
10.57***
βGARCH0.9875
310.62***
γleverage0.0104
0.54

0.987

Persistence

55d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0380
4.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1745
10.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9875
310.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0104
0.54

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days