Henry Hub Natural Gas EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
48.96%
increased by 1.94%
1 Week
49.44%
increased by 2.42%
1 Month
51.26%
increased by 4.24%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:07 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0380 | 4.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.1745 | 10.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9875 | 310.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.0104 | 0.54 |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0380 | 4.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1745 | 10.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9875 | 310.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0104 | 0.54 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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