V-Lab
Henry Hub Natural Gas EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
38.76%
decreased by 1.87%
1 Week
39.36%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
41.71%
increased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 30, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0375 | 4.65*** |
| αARCH | 0.1748 | 10.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9876 | 312.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.0100 | 0.52 |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0375 | 4.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1748 | 10.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9876 | 312.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0100 | 0.52 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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