V-Lab
Chicago SRW Wheat EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
32.95%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
32.95%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
32.94%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 04:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 43% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0241 | 15.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1213 | 29.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9835 | 984.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0213 | 6.22*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
42 days
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