V-Lab
ICE US Cotton No. 2 EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
30.90%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
31.01%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
31.42%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0191 | 3.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1051 | 8.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9884 | 284.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0147 | -1.33 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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