NYMEX Palladium EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
41.69%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
41.62%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Month
41.43%
decreased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 28, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1042 | 11.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2065 | 26.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9451 | 182.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0033 | -0.38 |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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