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NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

48.42%

increased by 8.36%

1 Week

48.10%

increased by 8.04%

1 Month

46.99%

increased by 6.93%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 4, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days.

σ

EGARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0344
4.78***
αARCH0.1955
7.38***
βGARCH0.9815
252.84***
γleverage-0.0101
-0.47

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0344
4.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1955
7.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9815
252.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0101
-0.47

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days