V-Lab
NY Harbor ULSD Heating Oil EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
48.42%
increased by 8.36%
1 Week
48.10%
increased by 8.04%
1 Month
46.99%
increased by 6.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 4, 2000 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0344 | 4.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1955 | 7.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9815 | 252.84*** |
| γleverage | -0.0101 | -0.47 |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0344 | 4.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1955 | 7.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9815 | 252.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0101 | -0.47 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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