S&P GSCI Coffee Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
66.52%
decreased by 4.02%
1 Week
64.93%
decreased by 5.61%
1 Month
59.86%
decreased by 10.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 213% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0381 | 10.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1229 | 29.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9780 | 602.56*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0634 | 19.02*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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