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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Coffee Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

66.52%

decreased by 4.02%

1 Week

64.93%

decreased by 5.61%

1 Month

59.86%

decreased by 10.68%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Coffee Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 213% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0381
10.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1229
29.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9780
602.56***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0634
19.02***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days