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S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

21.01%

increased by 0.38%

1 Week

21.27%

increased by 0.64%

1 Month

22.28%

increased by 1.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0212
4.02***
αARCH0.1436
7.59***
βGARCH0.9848
286.11***
γleverage-0.0275
-1.84*

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0212
4.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1436
7.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9848
286.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0275
-1.84*

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days