S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
31.43%
decreased by 1.84%
1 Week
31.45%
decreased by 1.82%
1 Month
31.50%
decreased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 47% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 16.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1438 | 30.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9848 | 1,142.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0274 | -7.33*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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