S&P GSCI Energy and Metals Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
21.01%
increased by 0.38%
1 Week
21.27%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
22.28%
increased by 1.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0212 | 4.02*** |
| αARCH | 0.1436 | 7.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9848 | 286.11*** |
| γleverage | -0.0275 | -1.84* |
0.985
Persistence45d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 4.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1436 | 7.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9848 | 286.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0275 | -1.84* |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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