S&P GSCI Lean Hogs Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
34.02%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
33.79%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
33.00%
decreased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 72% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0237 | 17.02*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1299 | 39.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9799 | 1,057.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0342 | -15.02*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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