Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Lean Hogs Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

34.08%

decreased by 1.26%

1 Week

33.86%

decreased by 1.48%

1 Month

33.07%

decreased by 2.27%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Lean Hogs Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 114% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0514
18.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0404
20.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9190
445.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0459
9.31***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days