S&P GSCI Lean Hogs Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
34.08%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Week
33.86%
decreased by 1.48%
1 Month
33.07%
decreased by 2.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 114% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0514 | 18.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0404 | 20.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9190 | 445.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0459 | 9.31*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
39 days
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