V-Lab
S&P GSCI Coffee Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
53.74%
decreased by 1.99%
1 Week
53.00%
decreased by 2.73%
1 Month
50.42%
decreased by 5.31%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 379% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1230 | 18.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0993 | 18.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9153 | 365.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0785 | -13.03*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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