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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Coffee Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

81.97%

decreased by 2.86%

1 Week

80.38%

decreased by 4.45%

1 Month

74.69%

decreased by 10.14%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Coffee Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 382% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1220
17.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1001
18.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9153
367.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0793
-12.93***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days