S&P GSCI Coffee Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
76.51%
decreased by 2.94%
1 Week
75.08%
decreased by 4.37%
1 Month
69.95%
decreased by 9.50%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 381% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1216 | 17.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0994 | 18.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9157 | 369.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0787 | -12.99*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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