S&P GSCI Coffee Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
81.97%
decreased by 2.86%
1 Week
80.38%
decreased by 4.45%
1 Month
74.69%
decreased by 10.14%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 382% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1220 | 17.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1001 | 18.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9153 | 367.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0793 | -12.93*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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