S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.09%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
18.11%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
18.19%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0102 | 14.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0442 | 17.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9475 | 599.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0031 | 0.83 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
103 days
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