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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

18.09%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

18.11%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

18.19%

decreased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 103 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0102
14.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0442
17.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9475
599.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0031
0.83

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

103 days