S&P GSCI Agricultural Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
17.27%
increased by 0.30%
1 Week
17.28%
increased by 0.31%
1 Month
17.32%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0117 | 4.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0624 | 6.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9350 | 156.70*** |
| γleverage | -0.0135 | -0.81 |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0117 | 4.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0624 | 6.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9350 | 156.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0135 | -0.81 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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