V-Lab
S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
14.65%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
14.89%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
15.72%
increased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0235 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0417 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9406 | 120.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0126 | 0.77 |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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