S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.25%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
18.36%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
18.79%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 29% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0235 | 17.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0415 | 16.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9411 | 484.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0122 | 3.01*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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