S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
17.48%
decreased by 0.31%
1 Week
17.61%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
18.12%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0237 | 4.32*** |
| αARCH | 0.0416 | 4.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9410 | 121.03*** |
| γleverage | 0.0118 | 0.72 |
0.988
Persistence60d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0237 | 4.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0416 | 4.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9410 | 121.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0118 | 0.72 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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