S&P GSCI Copper Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
17.34%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
17.47%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
17.98%
increased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0231 | 4.30*** |
| αARCH | 0.0472 | 7.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9416 | 121.47*** |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0231 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0472 | 7.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9416 | 121.47*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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