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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

24.37%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

24.40%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Month

24.52%

decreased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 177 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0121
20.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0706
35.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9255
507.11***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

177 days