S&P GSCI Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
24.37%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
24.40%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
24.52%
decreased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 177 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0121 | 20.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0706 | 35.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9255 | 507.11*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
177 days
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