ICE Brent Crude Oil GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
34.31%
increased by 3.71%
1 Week
34.50%
increased by 3.90%
1 Month
35.22%
increased by 4.62%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0808 | 4.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.0953 | 6.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8931 | 62.77*** |
0.988
Persistence60d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0808 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0953 | 6.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8931 | 62.77*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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