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ICE Brent Crude Oil GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

30.60%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Week

30.91%

decreased by 1.11%

1 Month

32.02%

increased by 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 05:15 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0808
4.64***
αARCH0.0954
6.38***
βGARCH0.8930
62.70***

0.988

Persistence

60d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0808
4.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0954
6.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8930
62.70***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days