V-Lab
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
15.27%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
15.34%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
15.58%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 11:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0104 | 3.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0460 | 8.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9470 | 150.17*** |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0104 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9470 | 150.17*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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