NYMEX Platinum GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
35.93%
increased by 1.02%
1 Week
35.88%
increased by 0.97%
1 Month
35.70%
increased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1997 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 120 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~120 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0230 | 2.30** |
| αARCH | 0.0511 | 3.91*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9431 | 67.69*** |
0.994
Persistence120d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0230 | 2.30** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0511 | 3.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9431 | 67.69*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
120 days
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