NYMEX Platinum GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
42.26%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Week
42.13%
decreased by 1.16%
1 Month
41.62%
decreased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 05:16 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1997 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.48 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9135 | 6.53*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0427 | 45.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9947 | 1,310.53*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.4814 | 11.87*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
130 days
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