NYMEX Platinum GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
34.52%
1 Week
34.45%
1 Month
34.18%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1997 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 131 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.9290 | 1.59 |
| αscore | 0.0424 | 11.35*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9947 | 319.54*** |
| νDF | 5.5419 | 2.82*** |
0.995
Persistence131d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.9290 | 1.59 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0424 | 11.35*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9947 | 319.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.5419 | 2.82*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
131 days
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