S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.83%
1 Week
16.90%
1 Month
17.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 261 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 3.1631 | 1.55 |
| αscore | 0.0349 | 11.35*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9974 | 599.73*** |
| νDF | 8.4075 | 1.49 |
0.997
Persistence261d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 3.1631 | 1.55 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0349 | 11.35*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 599.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4075 | 1.49 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
261 days
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