V-Lab
S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
12.84%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
12.95%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
13.39%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 286 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0888 | 1.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0324 | 12.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 644.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9621 | 2.23** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
286 days
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