V-Lab
S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.56%
1 Week
13.67%
1 Month
14.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 286 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.0845 | 1.50 |
| αARCH | 0.0324 | 12.23*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9976 | 644.01*** |
| νDF | 6.9729 | 2.22** |
0.998
Persistence286d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0845 | 1.50 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0324 | 12.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 644.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9729 | 2.22** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
286 days
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