Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

13.56%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

13.67%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

14.07%

increased by 0.55%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 286 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~286 daysv = 6.97 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.0845
1.50
αARCH0.0324
12.23***
βGARCH0.9976
644.01***
νDF6.9729
2.22**

0.998

Persistence

286d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.0845
1.50
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0324
12.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9976
644.01***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9729
2.22**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

286 days