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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

15.51%

increased by 0.53%

1 Week

15.60%

increased by 0.62%

1 Month

15.93%

increased by 0.95%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Lead Spot Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1995 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 278 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~278 daysv = 6.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.0711
1.49
αARCH0.0325
12.10***
βGARCH0.9975
617.65***
νDF6.9887
2.16**

0.998

Persistence

278d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.0711
1.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0325
12.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9975
617.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9887
2.16**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

278 days