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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

41.62%

decreased by 1.99%

1 Week

41.55%

decreased by 2.06%

1 Month

41.27%

decreased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.4229
1.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0630
9.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9916
151.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7210
1.55

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

82 days