V-Lab
S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
41.62%
decreased by 1.99%
1 Week
41.55%
decreased by 2.06%
1 Month
41.27%
decreased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.72 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4229 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0630 | 9.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 151.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7210 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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