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S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

39.26%

decreased by 1.75%

1 Week

39.23%

decreased by 1.78%

1 Month

39.09%

decreased by 1.92%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 daysv = 6.73 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.4172
1.34
αARCH0.0628
9.88***
βGARCH0.9916
151.74***
νDF6.7257
1.55

0.992

Persistence

83d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.4172
1.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0628
9.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9916
151.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7257
1.55

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days