S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
46.09%
decreased by 1.97%
1 Week
45.96%
decreased by 2.10%
1 Month
45.44%
decreased by 2.62%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.4349 | 5.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0628 | 39.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9917 | 608.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6960 | 6.25*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Commodities