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S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

36.54%

decreased by 1.34%

1 Week

36.55%

decreased by 1.33%

1 Month

36.58%

decreased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 daysv = 6.74 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.4280
1.34
αARCH0.0627
9.92***
βGARCH0.9917
152.83***
νDF6.7431
1.55

0.992

Persistence

83d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.4280
1.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0627
9.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9917
152.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7431
1.55

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days