S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
45.58%
decreased by 2.16%
1 Week
45.45%
decreased by 2.29%
1 Month
44.94%
decreased by 2.80%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 81 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.3891 | 5.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 39.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9915 | 602.01*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7273 | 6.18*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
81 days
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