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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

51.19%

decreased by 2.70%

1 Week

50.71%

decreased by 3.18%

1 Month

48.98%

decreased by 4.91%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.61) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0689
14.98***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0858
32.20***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8950
327.36***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6100
16.67***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days