S&P GSCI Brent Crude Oil Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
51.19%
decreased by 2.70%
1 Week
50.71%
decreased by 3.18%
1 Month
48.98%
decreased by 4.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 1999 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.61) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0689 | 14.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0858 | 32.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8950 | 327.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6100 | 16.67*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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