S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
16.51%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
16.43%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Month
16.18%
decreased by 0.79%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.27) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0113 | 16.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0458 | 37.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9363 | 582.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2678 | 18.91*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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