V-Lab
S&P GSCI Livestock Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
13.45%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
13.48%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
13.58%
decreased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:53 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 43-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0131 | 5.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0483 | 9.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9356 | 147.62*** |
0.984
Persistence43d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0131 | 5.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0483 | 9.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9356 | 147.62*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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