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V-Lab

ICE US Sugar GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

35.32%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

35.29%

decreased by 0.68%

1 Month

35.17%

decreased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Sugar GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 1, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0403
3.22***
αARCH0.0383
5.12***
βGARCH0.9527
105.00***

0.991

Persistence

77d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0403
3.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0383
5.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9527
105.00***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days