ICE US Sugar GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
35.32%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
35.29%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Month
35.17%
decreased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 10:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 1, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0403 | 3.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0383 | 5.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9527 | 105.00*** |
0.991
Persistence77d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0403 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0383 | 5.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9527 | 105.00*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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