ICE US Cocoa GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
49.98%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
49.97%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
49.91%
decreased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 640 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~640 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0076 | 1.83* |
| αARCH | 0.0252 | 5.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9737 | 206.42*** |
0.999
Persistence640d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0076 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0252 | 5.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9737 | 206.42*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
640 days
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