V-Lab
ICE US Cocoa GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
60.49%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
60.46%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Month
60.37%
decreased by 0.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 807 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~807 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0070 | 1.71* |
| αARCH | 0.0250 | 5.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9742 | 209.82*** |
0.999
Persistence807d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0070 | 1.71* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0250 | 5.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9742 | 209.82*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
807 days
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