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V-Lab

ICE US Cocoa GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

49.98%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

49.97%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

49.91%

decreased by 0.04%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cocoa GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 640 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~640 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0076
1.83*
αARCH0.0252
5.81***
βGARCH0.9737
206.42***

0.999

Persistence

640d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0076
1.83*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0252
5.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9737
206.42***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

640 days