Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

ICE US Cocoa GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

60.49%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

60.46%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Month

60.37%

decreased by 0.89%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cocoa GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 807 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~807 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0070
1.71*
αARCH0.0250
5.82***
βGARCH0.9742
209.82***

0.999

Persistence

807d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0070
1.71*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0250
5.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9742
209.82***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

807 days