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V-Lab

ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

65.91%

increased by 1.42%

1 Week

65.89%

increased by 1.40%

1 Month

65.82%

increased by 1.33%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1011 trading days (~4.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0069
1.13
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0341
4.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9730
212.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0157
-1.54

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1011 days