V-Lab
ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
73.00%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
72.98%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
72.90%
decreased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1176 trading days (~4.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 88% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0067 | 4.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0344 | 16.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9730 | 855.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0161 | -6.21*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1176 days
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