ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
75.18%
increased by 1.86%
1 Week
75.16%
increased by 1.84%
1 Month
75.08%
increased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1288 trading days (~5.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 89% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0066 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0346 | 16.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9730 | 854.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0163 | -6.19*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1288 days
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