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V-Lab

ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

75.18%

increased by 1.86%

1 Week

75.16%

increased by 1.84%

1 Month

75.08%

increased by 1.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1288 trading days (~5.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 89% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0066
4.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0346
16.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9730
854.22***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0163
-6.19***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1288 days