ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026
1 Day
45.74%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
45.74%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
45.71%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, November 13, 2026 at 10:10 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 609 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~609 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0083 | 1.33 |
| αARCH | 0.0349 | 4.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9718 | 207.87*** |
| γleverage | -0.0157 | -1.52 |
0.999
Persistence609d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0083 | 1.33 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0349 | 4.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9718 | 207.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0157 | -1.52 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
609 days
Other ICE US Cocoa Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities