ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
48.26%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
48.25%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Month
48.21%
decreased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 672 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~672 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0079 | 1.28 |
| αARCH | 0.0345 | 4.08*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9722 | 208.14*** |
| γleverage | -0.0155 | -1.52 |
0.999
Persistence672d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0079 | 1.28 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0345 | 4.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9722 | 208.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0155 | -1.52 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
672 days
Other ICE US Cocoa Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities