V-Lab
ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
59.60%
increased by 1.81%
1 Week
59.58%
increased by 1.79%
1 Month
59.52%
increased by 1.73%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 04:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 912 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~912 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0071 | 1.16 |
| αARCH | 0.0340 | 4.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9730 | 212.12*** |
| γleverage | -0.0154 | -1.53 |
0.999
Persistence912d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0071 | 1.16 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0340 | 4.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9730 | 212.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0154 | -1.53 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
912 days
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