ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
53.82%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
53.81%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
53.76%
decreased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 10:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 800 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~800 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0074 | 1.21 |
| αARCH | 0.0341 | 4.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9727 | 210.37*** |
| γleverage | -0.0154 | -1.52 |
0.999
Persistence800d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0074 | 1.21 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0341 | 4.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9727 | 210.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0154 | -1.52 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
800 days
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