ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
53.01%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
53.00%
decreased by 0.73%
1 Month
52.95%
decreased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 756 trading days (~3.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~756 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0076 | 1.23 |
| αARCH | 0.0342 | 4.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9726 | 209.47*** |
| γleverage | -0.0154 | -1.52 |
0.999
Persistence756d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0076 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0342 | 4.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9726 | 209.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0154 | -1.52 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
756 days
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