V-Lab
ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
65.91%
increased by 1.42%
1 Week
65.89%
increased by 1.40%
1 Month
65.82%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 04:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2000 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1011 trading days (~4.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0069 | 1.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0341 | 4.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9730 | 212.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0157 | -1.54 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1011 days
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