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V-Lab

ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

73.00%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

72.98%

decreased by 1.00%

1 Month

72.90%

decreased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 10:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE US Cocoa GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1176 trading days (~4.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 88% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0067
4.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0344
16.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9730
855.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0161
-6.21***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1176 days