S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
13.05%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
13.08%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
13.19%
increased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 204 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0038 | 16.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0529 | 21.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9425 | 677.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0024 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
204 days
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