V-Lab
S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
12.25%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
12.28%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
12.42%
decreased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 201 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0038 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0528 | 5.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9425 | 169.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0024 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
201 days
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