S&P GSCI Light Energy Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
9.22%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
9.29%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
9.57%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:51 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 196 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~196 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0038 | 4.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0531 | 5.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9421 | 168.60*** |
| γleverage | 0.0024 | 0.15 |
0.996
Persistence196d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0038 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0531 | 5.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9421 | 168.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0024 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
196 days
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