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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

38.23%

increased by 1.34%

1 Week

37.93%

increased by 1.04%

1 Month

36.79%

decreased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 44% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0180
15.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0511
17.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9456
508.41***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0156
-3.82***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days