V-Lab
S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
29.20%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
29.03%
decreased by 0.91%
1 Month
28.40%
decreased by 1.54%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 43% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0179 | 15.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0503 | 17.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9462 | 511.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0152 | -3.80*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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