V-Lab
S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
24.55%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
24.46%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Month
24.10%
decreased by 1.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0187 | 4.01*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0505 | 4.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9451 | 125.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0146 | -0.92 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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