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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

22.29%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

22.24%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

22.05%

decreased by 0.49%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0189
4.05***
αARCH0.0505
4.42***
βGARCH0.9449
126.60***
γleverage-0.0146
-0.91

0.988

Persistence

58d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0189
4.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0505
4.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9449
126.60***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0146
-0.91

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days