V-Lab
S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.29%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
22.24%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Month
22.05%
decreased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0189 | 4.05*** |
| αARCH | 0.0505 | 4.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9449 | 126.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.0146 | -0.91 |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0189 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0505 | 4.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9449 | 126.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0146 | -0.91 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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