S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
38.23%
increased by 1.34%
1 Week
37.93%
increased by 1.04%
1 Month
36.79%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 17, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 44% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0180 | 15.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0511 | 17.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9456 | 508.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0156 | -3.82*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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