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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

24.55%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

24.46%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Month

24.10%

decreased by 1.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 59 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 59 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0187
4.01***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0505
4.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9451
125.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0146
-0.92

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

59 days