Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

29.20%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

29.03%

decreased by 0.91%

1 Month

28.40%

decreased by 1.54%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Softs Spot Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 17, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 43% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0179
15.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0503
17.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9462
511.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0152
-3.80***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

62 days