V-Lab
ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
72.09%
decreased by 3.09%
1 Week
71.48%
decreased by 3.70%
1 Month
69.20%
decreased by 5.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 69% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0777 | 16.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0668 | 11.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8977 | 261.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0463 | 4.58*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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