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V-Lab

ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

49.70%

increased by 1.18%

1 Week

49.47%

increased by 0.95%

1 Month

48.64%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 71% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0784
16.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0662
11.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8976
260.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0473
4.65***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days