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ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

44.79%

increased by 0.55%

1 Week

44.69%

increased by 0.45%

1 Month

44.29%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0783
4.21***
αARCH0.0684
3.06***
βGARCH0.8970
65.96***
γleverage0.0446
1.10

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0783
4.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0684
3.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8970
65.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0446
1.10

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days