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V-Lab

ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026

1 Day

42.74%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

42.64%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

42.31%

decreased by 0.68%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 69% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0812
16.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0675
11.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8958
254.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0468
4.54***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

51 days