ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
42.74%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
42.64%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
42.31%
decreased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 69% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0812 | 16.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0675 | 11.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8958 | 254.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0468 | 4.54*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
51 days
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