V-Lab
ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
46.08%
decreased by 2.28%
1 Week
45.94%
decreased by 2.42%
1 Month
45.42%
decreased by 2.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 66% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0794 | 16.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0685 | 12.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8963 | 259.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0454 | 4.45*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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