ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
49.70%
increased by 1.18%
1 Week
49.47%
increased by 0.95%
1 Month
48.64%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 04:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 71% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0784 | 16.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0662 | 11.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8976 | 260.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0473 | 4.65*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
Other ICE Brent Crude Oil Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Commodities