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V-Lab

ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

72.09%

decreased by 3.09%

1 Week

71.48%

decreased by 3.70%

1 Month

69.20%

decreased by 5.98%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 05:14 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE Brent Crude Oil GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 30, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 69% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0777
16.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0668
11.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8977
261.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0463
4.58***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days